A recent boom in electric car sales in the UK may not last long. A leading industry group warns that rising inflation and higher energy bills, caused by the Iran war, could soon cool down buyer enthusiasm.
Electric Cars Hit a Milestone
New car sales in the UK rose sharply in April. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), 149,247 new cars were sold last month. That is a 24% jump compared to the same month last year.
Electric vehicles (EVs) led the charge. Sales of battery electric cars jumped by 59.1% in April. The UK also registered its two millionth electric car. EVs now make up more than a quarter (26.2%) of all new cars sold.
Why the War in Iran Changes Things
Since the war in Iran began, more Europeans have shown interest in electric cars. Why? Because the rising cost of petrol makes cheaper plug-in power look very attractive.
However, the SMMT says the full impact of the conflict is still “yet to be seen.” They warn that the current jump in EV interest could be tempered (slowed down) by three things:
- Worries over rising inflation.
- Higher household energy prices.
- The overall pressure on the cost of living.
In simple terms: even though electricity is cheaper than petrol, if energy bills keep rising, people may think twice before buying an EV.
The Challenge Behind the Numbers
The April sales jump looks big, but it comes after an unusually weak April last year. In 2025, many buyers rushed to buy cars in March to avoid new vehicle taxes. Those tax changes (for zero-emission cars) took effect on April 1, 2025.
Even with the recent jump, EVs have only made up 23.1% of the market this year. That is far below the 33% target required by the UK’s zero-emission vehicle mandate.
Looking Ahead: A Lowered Forecast
The SMMT has now downgraded its expectations for EV demand in 2026. They previously thought EVs would make up 28.5% of sales. Now, they expect only 26.8%.
For 2027, the forecast is slightly better—32% EVs—but that is still six percentage points below the official government target.
Mike Hawes, the SMMT chief executive, warned that the rising cost of following the rules (compliance) could hurt the UK. He said it could limit consumer choice, slow down efforts to cut emissions, and make Britain less attractive as a place to build or sell cars.
Other Key Highlights
- Petrol and diesel: Petrol car sales rose 8.2%, while diesel sales actually dipped 1%.
- Hybrids: Plug-in hybrid sales jumped 46.4%, and standard hybrids rose 18.8%.
- Tesla’s performance: Tesla’s UK sales rose 62% in April to 831 units.
- Overall confidence: Total new car sales for 2026 are still expected to rise slightly, to about 2.09 million cars.
A Quick Look at the US Market
For comparison, the US auto market tells a different story. According to S&P Global Mobility, April 2026 US sales are expected to reach about 1.40 million units. Unlike the UK, the US has not seen a big surge in EV sales due to higher fuel prices.
The US outlook for 2026 has also been downgraded slightly. Experts expect total sales of 15.8 million units, down more than 3% from 2025.
The Bottom Line
The UK is celebrating two million electric cars on the road. But the celebration may be short-lived. The combination of war, inflation, and high energy costs is creating real uncertainty. While higher petrol prices push some buyers toward EVs, fears over household budgets could push others away.
The coming months will show whether the UK can meet its ambitious green targets, or whether real-world economic pressures will force a slowdown.