PORT OF SPAIN: Families across the Caribbean are bracing for harder times as global turmoil sends food prices soaring, United Nations researchers warned Wednesday.
The crisis stems from two major problems happening at once: conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping through a critical waterway called the Strait of Hormuz, and fuel prices have jumped sharply. Crude oil recently topped $114 per barrel.
For Caribbean islands that must import most of what they eat, this is a disaster in the making.
Why This Hits the Caribbean So Hard
Most Caribbean nations buy their food from other countries. When shipping costs go up and fuel gets expensive, the price of everything on grocery store shelves rises quickly.
The UN’s World Food Programme says low-income families will suffer the most. Since 2018, food prices in the region have already jumped between 55 and 60 percent. Many families were already struggling before these new problems began.
Even though a ceasefire is now in place in the Middle East, the report’s authors warn that “volatility remains high” and the Caribbean “is feeling the squeeze fast.”
A Second Threat: Bad Weather on the Way
Adding to the trouble, climate experts say there is a 61 percent chance that El Niño – a weather pattern that brings extreme heat and drought – will hit by mid-2026.
For the Caribbean, El Niño has historically meant dried-up crops, water shortages and scorching temperatures. Countries like Jamaica, Belize, Guyana, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago could be especially hard hit.
Islands Already Weakened by Storms
Recent hurricanes have left families with little ability to bounce back. Hurricane Beryl struck in 2024, and Hurricane Melissa hit last October. Many households are still recovering.
Experts say that means even a small price increase or a modest crop failure could push many families into crisis.
“The coming months will be critical,” the report states. Without quick action to steady markets, protect local food production and support family incomes, the region could slide into a much deeper crisis.
A Similar Story in the UK
The British poultry industry is also sounding alarms. Chicken – which makes up half the meat eaten in Britain – is facing rising production costs.
Key supplies like fuel, gas, fertilizer and animal feed ingredients are facing delays and price hikes because of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Even vitamins and medicines needed for healthy chickens are becoming hard to guarantee.
Richard Griffiths, head of the British Poultry Council, said the government needs to act quickly. “Global events are once again challenging the resilience of our domestic food production,” he said.
Why Grocery Prices Stay High Even If Fuel Drops
Even if gasoline prices fall, experts say shoppers shouldn’t expect immediate relief at the grocery store.
The reason is diesel. Diesel powers the trucks and trains that move food around the country. It currently averages about $5.60 per gallon nationwide – more than $2 higher than a year ago in some areas. In parts of California’s farming regions, diesel is approaching $8 per gallon.
Trucking companies pass those higher fuel costs to stores, and stores pass them to customers.
Perishable foods like meat, dairy, fruits and vegetables are especially affected. Recent government reports show those categories continue to climb in price.
Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, explained that “when diesel prices spike as significantly as they have, it amplifies the impact” on food costs. He added that even if fuel prices drop, it can take weeks or months for grocery prices to follow.
Experts warn that even if global conditions improve, the damage may last a long time. The Caribbean risks getting trapped in a cycle where rising prices, climate disasters and food shortages keep feeding into one another.
Without intervention, both Caribbean families and British shoppers could be paying much more for basic food in the months ahead.