KARACHI: Pakistan’s oil marketing companies (OMCs) are poised to report a sharp jump in third-quarter earnings on the back of forced inventory gains from a dramatic spike in global petroleum prices, according to a research note by Insight Securities (ISL) seen by Reuters.
The report, dated April 10, 2026, said motor spirit (gasoline) prices climbed to roughly $138 per barrel by end-March from around $72 at the close of December 2025. High-speed diesel surged even more sharply, rising to approximately $234 per barrel from $79 per barrel over the same period, driven by geopolitical tensions disrupting global energy markets.
Under Pakistani regulations, OMCs must maintain minimum inventory equivalent to nearly 20 days of sales. In a rising price environment, this requirement allows companies to sell stocks procured at lower prices at current elevated market rates, generating substantial inventory gains.
Insight Securities estimates that profitability for its coverage universe — which includes state-run Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) — will improve by roughly 7.3 times year-on-year and 9.1 times quarter-on-quarter.
“We anticipate a notable expansion in gross margins during the quarter, particularly for players with higher inventory cover and efficient stock management practices,” the report said, forecasting PSO’s earnings per share at 86.6 Pakistani rupees for 3QFY26, up from 8.7 rupees a year earlier, and APL’s EPS at 64.1 rupees versus 20.7 rupees.
However, the report flagged a growing risk: the accumulation of roughly 107 billion Pakistani rupees ($360 million) in Price Differential Claims (PDC) receivables from the government, stemming from recent subsidy measures.
“Elevated petroleum prices could potentially soften retail offtake as consumers adjust their consumption patterns,” the note added, but said these pressures would likely be cushioned by the inventory gains.
The research house expects gross margins for PSO to expand to 9.2% in the quarter from 3.2% a year earlier, and for APL to 10.5% from 4.7%.
“We believe prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term, even as the situation partially stabilizes, as refineries in the GCC enter a rebuilding phase and may take time to fully come online,” the report concluded.
($1 = 297.5000 Pakistani rupees)