Retail traders propel markets to record highs as U.S.-EU trade talks and OPEC decisions loom
As the July 9 deadline looms for U.S.-EU trade negotiations, the specter of renewed tariffs hangs over both economies. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already declared a full trade deal “impossible” by then, but Brussels is pushing for at least an “agreement in principle” to stave off a potential 50% levy on EU exports.
The stakes are high, and while President Donald Trump’s history of shifting deadlines keeps markets guessing, the outcome could shape transatlantic commerce for years to come.
European finance ministers will gather in Brussels this week, offering early signals on whether a breakthrough is possible. Meanwhile, another high-stakes meeting unfolds in Vienna as OPEC’s International Seminar convenes at the Hofburg Palace.
The event, a far cry from the chaotic press scrums of pre-pandemic OPEC meetings, will bring together energy ministers to discuss oil market stability. The real action, however, comes this weekend when OPEC+—including Russia—meets to decide on another anticipated production hike amid volatile crude prices.
Retail Traders Double Down on “Buy the Dip” Strategy
While geopolitics and energy markets dominate headlines, retail investors are quietly rewriting the playbook on Wall Street. Individual traders have poured a record $155 billion into U.S. stocks and ETFs in 2025, eclipsing even the meme-stock frenzy of 2021, according to VandaTrack. Their strategy? Buy the dip—a gamble that has paid off handsomely.
Despite April’s market turbulence triggered by Trump’s tariff blitz, retail traders kept buying, and their persistence has been rewarded. The Nasdaq 100 has surged 7.8% this year, but those who bought only on down days would have seen a staggering 31% return, Bank of America analysis shows.
“Dip-buying has become the new religion,” said Mike Zigmont of Visdom Investment Group as quoted by FT. The strategy, honed over years of post-financial-crisis rebounds, is delivering its best returns since early 2020. Even as professional investors fret over U.S. debt concerns and tariff risks, retail traders remain undeterred.
But some warn the party can’t last forever. “Dip-buying works brilliantly until it doesn’t,” cautioned Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates. “When you have a meltdown, it’s a quick path to deep regret.”
U.S. Exceptionalism Defies the Doubters
While global markets wobble, Wall Street continues to defy gravity. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have soared 31% and 24%, respectively, since April’s slump, hitting fresh record highs last week. Meanwhile, major indices in Europe and Asia lag behind—further proof, analysts say, of enduring U.S. economic dominance.
“U.S. exceptionalism isn’t just alive; it’s strengthening,” said Hani Redha of PineBridge Investments, pointing to deregulation and productivity gains under Trump. Recent jobs data and real per capita GDP growth further cement America’s lead over the EU, where structural challenges persist.
Even Bitcoin, now trading at $108,000 after a 44% rebound since April, seems to be riding the wave of U.S. market optimism. With a crypto-friendly administration in the White House, some argue Bitcoin has become part of the “American exceptionalism” trade.
Dollar’s Resilience and ECB’s Euro Concerns
The resurgence of U.S. economic strength may also bolster the dollar. Bruce J. Clark of Informa Global Markets noted that strong jobs data has “put another stake in the ‘loss of American exceptionalism’ narrative,” making a dollar rally increasingly likely.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is growing uneasy with the euro’s strength. Senior officials have hinted that further appreciation could threaten inflation targets, with ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warning against an “overshooting” euro above 1.20.
As trade talks, oil markets, and retail trading frenzies collide, one thing is clear: in an era of volatility, the U.S. remains the market’s center of gravity—for better or worse.