Dow Jones nears record high as investors balance trade optimism with labor concerns
U.S. stocks edged higher Wednesday as optimism over trade agreements helped buoy sentiment, even as fresh data pointed to a weakening labor market, intensifying expectations for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.4%, hitting a new record high intraday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained nearly flat, though it hovered near record territory.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Daily Change | Year-to-Date % | Notable Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. | +0.1% | — | Flat session; close to December record |
| S&P 500 | +0.4% | — | Fresh intraday high; led by tech |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.8% | — | Outperformed on Apple and Tesla gains |
Apple (AAPL) rose nearly 2% following an upgrade from Jefferies, extending its win streak to four days. Tesla (TSLA) rallied 5% after posting better-than-expected production figures for Q2 despite a steep year-over-year decline.
President Donald Trump announced a trade pact with Vietnam Wednesday morning, raising hopes for more deals before the July 9 tariff deadline. The news lifted investor confidence, especially among firms with strong manufacturing footprints in the region.
Tech Stocks Performance
| Company | % Change | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla (TSLA) | +5.0% | Q2 global deliveries beat expectations despite weak YoY |
| Apple (AAPL) | +2.0% | Boost from Jefferies upgrade |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | +2.0%+ | Strength in chips continues |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | +2.0%+ | Chip sector momentum |
| Alphabet (GOOG) | +1.0%+ | Positive sentiment |
| Microsoft, Amazon, Meta | Slight Decline | Mixed performance among other mega caps |
However, labor market data gave pause. Private employers shed 33,000 jobs in June, according to ADP—a significant miss from the 98,000 jobs analysts had expected. It was the first decline in over two years for the private sector.
With the government’s official jobs report due Thursday, investors are recalibrating expectations for monetary policy. CME data shows that while a July rate cut is not widely anticipated, most Fed watchers expect at least one cut by September—and over 20% now see two.
Economic Indicators
| Metric | Latest Reading | Previous Close | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.30% | 4.25% | Ticks higher; implications for mortgages |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 96.77 | — | Lowest levels since early 2022 |
| Bitcoin | $109,400 | $105,100 | Crypto prices rebound |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $67.50 | — | Futures rise 3.1% |
| Gold | $3,365 | — | Futures up 0.4% |
On the legislative front, Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which proposes steep cuts to Medicaid spending, passed the Senate by a narrow margin, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. The bill now heads to the House, though internal Republican divisions threaten the July 4 signing deadline.
Insurance stocks nosedived in response, with Centene (CNC) plunging 40% after withdrawing its earnings guidance. United Health, Molina Healthcare, and Elevance Health were also sharply lower.