Global tourism nears pre-pandemic levels

International tourism nearly reached pre-pandemic levels between July and September 2024, hitting 99% of 2019 figures, according to a recent World Bank report.

An estimated 447 million international tourists traveled globally during this period, marking a 7% increase from the same period in 2023. Despite this growth, the pace slowed compared to earlier quarters of 2024, with a 21% increase in Q1 and 11% in Q2 as pandemic recovery efforts began to wane.

September 2024 saw a record high in air passenger demand, with passenger load factors reaching 83.6%, surpassing last year’s levels by 1.2%, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Global travel services continued their robust growth in Q2 2024, outpacing broader services and merchandise trade. Travel services saw a 10% year-on-year increase, compared to 6% in overall services and 2% in merchandise trade. Tourism remains one of the few sectors exhibiting strong positive growth, attributed to delayed pandemic recovery, particularly in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP).

International tourist arrivals are expected to fully recover to 2019 levels by late 2024, with positive momentum projected to continue into 2025 as more countries manage inflation. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) estimates a full recovery in Q4 2024, with international tourist arrivals expected to surpass 2019 levels by 2%.

In the U.S., the Consumer Price Index indicates a moderate decrease in travel prices, with accommodation prices and airline fares decreasing by 1.57% and 0.83%, respectively, in Q3 2024. Slowing travel-related inflation in key markets such as China and the United Kingdom further contributes to this positive outlook.

However, concerns about disposable income and geopolitical uncertainty may impact future travel plans. In Q3 2024, estimated aviation passenger arrivals—a proxy for tourism trends—increased by 10% year-on-year globally. All regions experienced growth in passenger arrivals compared to the same period in 2023, with Eastern and Southern Africa (AFE) achieving higher growth than in the previous quarter, and EAP leading in year-on-year growth at 23%.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region showed the highest growth compared to 2019, driven largely by Morocco, despite a 7% decline due to intensified conflict in the Middle East.

Among individual economies, Turkmenistan, Moldova, Niger, and Zimbabwe reported the greatest year-on-year growth in estimated aviation passenger arrivals, highlighting the ongoing resilience and recovery of the global tourism sector.