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U.S. talent gap widens as H-1B lottery and heightened enforcement squeeze employers

Posted on October 21, 2025October 21, 2025
merger and acquisition

WASHINGTON: A perfect storm of a severe skilled-worker shortage, restrictive immigration caps, and newly aggressive government enforcement is forcing U.S. companies to treat global talent recruitment as a primary strategic concern, rather than a peripheral administrative task, industry executives and data show.

Immigration Service Issues Guidance On Who Pays The $100,000 H-1B Fee

The scale of the challenge is vast. U.S. employers were unable to hire over 350,000 highly skilled professionals in the last year due solely to the numerical constraints of the H-1B visa lottery, according to analysis of government data.

This occurs as 71% of employers across industries report difficulty finding qualified workers, a crisis most acute in the field of artificial intelligence, where AI-related skills now appear in 1.8% of all U.S. job postings.

The dependence on global talent for innovation is stark: more than two-thirds of AI researchers in the United States are foreign-born.

“Companies can no longer afford to treat immigration as an afterthought or rely on outdated processes that lead to delays, denials, or costly mistakes,” said Priyanka Kulkarni, CEO and founder of immigration law firm Casium. “We’ve always believed that immigration should be treated as a strategic business process, not a compliance afterthought.”

Policy Shifts Add Complexity to High-Stakes Lottery

The already daunting odds of the H-1B lottery have grown more complex. For the FY 2025 cycle, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) received over 470,000 registrations for the annual cap of 85,000 visas. A recent policy change aimed at curbing misuse now requires a unique beneficiary for each registration, rather than allowing multiple registrations for the same individual from different companies.

While intended to level the playing field, this shift demands even more meticulous preparation from employers who are competing for a rapidly shrinking chance to secure critical talent.

“The data underscores a fundamental contradiction,” said an immigration policy analyst who requested anonymity. “National strategies explicitly call for leadership in AI and tech, while the primary mechanism for bringing in the experts who drive that innovation is left to a lottery with a less than 20% chance of success.”

Project Firewall Signals Era of Scrutiny

Adding a significant layer of risk, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) recently launched “Project Firewall,” a coordinated initiative to enhance enforcement of H-1B program compliance. The initiative focuses on investigating fraud and ensuring that H-1B workers are paid the required wages and work at the locations listed in their applications.

This signals a clear move from the DOL toward unannounced audits and site visits, making strategic immigration planning and flawless documentation imperative for companies. A single error discovered during an enforcement action can lead to hefty fines, visa revocations, and debarment from the program.

This heightened scrutiny makes the advice from experts like Kulkarni not just a strategic recommendation, but a business imperative.

Echoing the strategic imperative, Jacob Colker, Co-Founder and Managing Director at the AI2 Incubator, framed the issue in terms of competitive advantage. “Immigration isn’t just a compliance headache; it’s a critical competitive advantage for companies trying to access the best talent in the world,” Colker said.

As the battle for top-tier global talent intensifies, the companies that succeed will be those that integrate immigration strategy directly into their core business planning, navigating the trifecta of scarcity, chance, and enforcement with precision and foresight.

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